Electricity Markets
New England markets slightly trended up last week, while all other forward markets were down week over week. PJM and NY have nearly converged to smallest difference since early 2021. All forward markets have generally been flat or trending down over the past few months.
Volatile weather was prevalent over the Northeast during the past week, and spot prices responded in kind. Spot pricing was quite volatile, with New England spot pricing reaching it’s highest price since the previous winter. Spot markets should settle in the coming weeks with warmer weather returning.
Natural Gas Markets
Forward markets for the first half of 2024 dropped significantly over the past week. Forward pricing going into the winter of 2024 bumps up significantly, but still remaining at optimal levels. 2025 and 2026 forward pricing years also shifted downward over the past week, and are now starting to separate. A warm winter this coming year could drive the 2025 and 2026 forward pricing years further apart.
Futures as of 12/7/2023 versus previous week:
| Current | ||
| Jan-24 | $2.536 | -$0.303 |
| Feb-24 | $2.482 | -$0.315 |
| Mar-24 | $2.354 | -$0.305 |
| Apr-24 | $2.343 | -$0.270 |
| May-24 | $2.425 | -$0.250 |
| Jun-24 | $2.568 | -$0.247 |
Natural Gas Inventory
Working gas in storage was 3,719 BCF as of Friday, November 23rd, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 117 Bcf from the previous week.
The Baker Hughes exploration decreased by 1 rig, for a total of 116 this week.
Weather Update
Temperatures will be at or above average across most of the United States.
Hurricane Watch: Click here to view the National Hurricane Center site.
News : NYISO expects sufficient power generation capacity this winter, sees declining margins- The New York Independent System Operator expects to have sufficient power capacity margins for average winter peak forecast conditions and could need to use emergency operating procedures in extreme weather conditions assuming only firm fuel generation is available, the grid operator said Nov.29.
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